Book/Report

FZJ-2019-01689

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Fuzzy Sets als Erweiterung probabilistischer Modelle zur Bewertung menschlicher Zuverlässigkeit

Przybylski, F. (Corresponding author)FZJ*

1996
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Zentralbibliothek, Verlag Jülich

Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/21746

Report No.: Juel-3303

Abstract: On the base of a survey of established quantification methodologies for evaluating human reliability, a new computerized methodology was developed in which a differential consideration of user uncertainties is made. In this quantification method FURTHER ($\textbf{FU}$zzy Sets $\textbf{R}$elated $\textbf{T}$o $\textbf{H}$uman $\textbf{E}$rror $\textbf{R}$ate Prediction), user uncertainties are quantified separately from model and data uncertainties. As tools fuzzy sets are applied which, however, stay hidden to the method's user. The user in the quantification process only eilooses an action pattern, performance shaping factors and natural language expressions. The ackknowledged method HEART ($\textbf{H}$uman $\textbf{E}$rror $\textbf{A}$ssessment and $\textbf{R}$eduction $\textbf{T}$echnique) serves as foundation of the fuzzy set approach FURThHR. By means of this method, the selection of a basic task in connection with its basic error probabildty, the decision how correct the basic task's selection is, the seleetion of a performance shaping factor, and the decision how correct the selection and how important the performance shaping factor is, were identified as aspects of fuzzification. This fuzzification is made an the base of data eolleetion and information from literature as well as of the estimation by competent persons. To verify the a ount of additional information to be received by the usage of fuzzy sets, a bench session was accomplished. In this benehmark twelve actions were assessed by five testspersons. In case of the saure degree of detail in the action modelling process, the bandwidths of the interpersonal evaluations decrease in FURTHER in comparison with liEART. The uncertainties of the single results could not be reduced up to now,The benchmark sessions conducted so far showed plausible results. A further testing of the fuzzy set approach by using betten confirmed fuzzy sets can only be achieved in filmte practical application. Adequate procedures, however, are provided.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Publikationen vor 2000 (PRE-2000)

Research Program(s):

1. 899 - ohne Topic (POF3-899) (POF3-899)

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Database coverage:

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